Tue, 1 July 2014
Whenever key evidence simply disappears from an arena of controversy, alarm bells go off. These missing emails happen to be a case in point. We have to ask a more basic question. If that large a gap in the official record exists, how many other key pieces of evidence are missing? What other email messages have vanished? When a public official suddenly resigns, and so much documentation turns out to be missing, is it any wonder suspicions will spread? But there is another side. There are reasonable explanations.
Direct download: Can_Missing_E-Mail_Messages_Be_Defen.mp3
Category:Political News -- posted at: 9:21pm EDT |
Sun, 29 June 2014
I never thought of him as a comedian until I came across a bit of history a few months ago. Then, a Tea Party candidate in Oklahoma again reminded me of Benjamin Franklin last week, and how he faked out an unethical rival, and made him deny his own death for years.
Direct download: Ben_Franklin_Is_Not_a_Tea_Party_Cand.mp3
Category:Political News -- posted at: 7:23pm EDT |
Tue, 24 June 2014
Hillary Clinton can become a great President, if she stops trying to think of herself as one of us. |
Tue, 10 June 2014
With each oscillation of modulus 4 years, Republicans win, when they win, by a smaller margin. When they lose, they lose by an ever widening gap. The reason is that Republican politicians face an increasingly conservative electorate in Republican primaries. They lose to extremists or they adopt extreme views themselves to get past primaries.
Direct download: Republican_Revolution_in_Virginia.mp3
Category:Political News -- posted at: 11:42pm EDT |
Tue, 20 May 2014
Karl Rove's newest questions about Hillary Clinton seem to be obvious missteps. He was quoted in a friendly paper, saying Hillary Clinton had suffered brain damage in a fall a couple of years ago. He denied saying that. He had only said she had fallen, had a serious head injury, and had been seen wearing special glasses designed for brain injured people. That's all he had said. Very innocent. Oh, and one other thing. You know, she's very, very old.
You might think Republicans would distance themselves from this one. Here's the chairman of the Republican National Committee.
"People" said that, did they? |
Thu, 1 May 2014
You can't just poll voters, if you want to predict how voters will choose. You have to poll voters who will choose. If a voter isn't going to vote, that voter will not have much effect on an election. It is hard to figure out who is going to vote. Some pollsters go by past elections, taking into account what percentage of different ages, races, income groups, and educational levels have voted. So, if you find you're over-representing left handed people with blue eyes, you just count their numbers less. It's called weighting. But weighting depends on past patterns holding in the future. Patterns are getting tricky.
It's getting harder to figure out who is going to vote for another reason. Republicans have been taking steps to make it harder for minorities and college students and working class people to vote. At the same time, courts are beginning to take a harder look at voter suppression. So it's hard to predict who will have their voting rights taken away by conservatives.
Direct download: Wave_Election_Polls_and_a_Tidal_Futu.mp3
Category:Political News -- posted at: 9:58pm EDT |
Thu, 10 April 2014
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Sun, 6 April 2014
Columbia, Tennessee promotes itself as the mule capital of the world. Every year around the end of March and beginning of April, they hold an annual celebration. Thousands of people come from all over to join in bluegrass, gospel, country music, with dancing and events. This year they tried a sort of take off on a rodeo, with guys riding sticks made up to look like heads of mules. It was like Monty Python for mule lovers. They also have an annual mule parade. Four years ago, a local Republican candidate for Congress, a tea party favorite, was scolded by a parade organizer for some sort of safety violation committed by his campaign the previous year. The candidate, Zach Wamp, got really steamed. He was reported by the Nashville City Paper to have said a couple of things that make campaign managers attempt to fly from tall buildings. "I make my own rules!" and "You can’t tell me what to do!" Yikes. Way to go, Zack.
Direct download: Lessons_from_the_Columbia_Mule_Parad.mp3
Category:Political News -- posted at: 9:31pm EDT |
Thu, 3 April 2014
When Bill Clinton won the Presidency in 1992, conservatives looked for whatever comfort they could generate from his low share of the vote. It had been a three candidate race, and Bill Clinton won with 43 percent. George Will reacted with some degree of scorn, not toward Clinton, but toward Clinton's critics. He mocked the"delightful Republican attempt to build confidence on a rickety scaffolding of little numbers." He stated two obvious facts. One was that the President-elect would have won with a substantially larger share of the vote had the third candidate, Ross Perot, not engaged in a campaign that was self-financed by equal parts big money and big ego. The other was that Clinton had ... well ... won. "Clinton`s strong number is: He won 100 percent of the White House." Unless you are Chris Christie making a ruthless run toward national Republican prominence, that 100 percent of any elective office means you would not be willing to block lanes or break heads to get a few more points past 60 percent. As long as you get enough past half to avoid a nail biting recount, who cares? That's why it was hard for me to take seriously the Huffington Post headline a few days ago: |
Wed, 2 April 2014
Voters in their mid-twenties will remember just one presidential campaign in which the Republican got more votes than the Democrat. That happened in 2004 as President George W. Bush was cast as the anti-terrorist President. Elections in which the Democratic candidate got more votes:
Elections in which the Republican candidate got more votes:
A trend can be seen in non-Presidential races. The line is not straight, but it wobbles along, generally in one direction. The oscillation does continue. Republicans are victorious, then Democrats win. But Republican victories are becoming narrower over time. Democrats, when they win, achieve greater margins. What began happening in 1992? Why is it continuing?
Direct download: Will_Massively_Wealthy_Elites_Save_t.mp3
Category:Political News -- posted at: 12:56am EDT |